Are You Skeered?

[weekender21]

I disagree that state and local governments are racing to shut things down, some maybe but not all. A good percentage of the electorate are complaining that people aren’t following directives and begging for additional controls. I think more of the sheep are scared and begging for a sheep dog which right wrong or indifferent comes in the form of government.


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[Buckly]

And I would disagree that a large percentage are asking for more controls. I see the opposite. In PA for example they forced all non life essential business to close. They didn’t even do that in NY. There are many business that can be open and safely open that are forced to be closed. Again I disagree. What I see is a storm brewing. People are not going to put up with these restrictions past 4/30. I can see some social unrest at some point. People are going to push back.

 

[weekender21]

There have been several examples of citizens trying to block movement into “their” communities. A large portion of the residents in our future community want the entire county shut down. People are scared. Sure, perspective probably differs greatly in different regions. “Group think” is real. It’s hard to please everyone.

In other news, Hawaii has decided not to reopen public schools until four weeks have passed without a new infection. Well....that could be a while.


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[Mennoniteman]

Just remember the ease at which they closed the Country down. So fast and so easy. And people are taking notes. If they did it once , guaranteed they will do it again. I’m not saying right or wrong but, it was way too easy for them to do this. It’s almost a competition now between States to see who can shut more down. Maybe not initially intended but it’s now just a giant social engineering experiment. We’re deep into the mitigation’s now but, I really believe if this virus cycles around back in the fall or next year there will be a whole lot more pushback on these lockdowns.

There's other options for mitigation besides destroying our economy. Such as requiring everyone to wear a mask and gloves in public right at the start and letting people work. The socialists seem to enjoy ruining a capitalistic economy a little too much.

 

[Buckly]

There have been several examples of citizens trying to block movement into “their” communities. A large portion of the residents in our future community want the entire county shut down. People are scared. Sure, perspective probably differs greatly in different regions. “Group think” is real. It’s hard to please everyone.

In other news, Hawaii has decided not to reopen public schools until four weeks have passed without a new infection. Well....that could be a while.


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one regret I’ve had is not getting to Hawaii before the shut downs. I can think of no better place to get stuck.

 

[DRandall90]

Surely they're not calling it the Spanish Flu anymore? Isn't that denigrating to all Latin peoples?
Talking of the flu disappearing on it own, check this out;
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epide...uld-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
I especially like the end where he says; “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”

My wife's coworker (a nurse) passed away yesterday, 44 year old mother of 4, because she contracted COVID from a patient, and was told she was of the portion of the population that would likely have mild symptoms and was told to just quarantine by herself at home. Two days later her lungs failed due to the virus. No known underlying conditions.

I don't think anyone in the medical community would really argue with what he is saying here, including my sister, who is an epidemiologist. We could definitely just let the virus run it's course and spread and develop immunity. Two weeks seems shorter than what my sister said, who estimated closer to a month.

The problem is we would, in this country, be forcing medical providers for a one month period to choose who lives and who dies in many situations. It's easy for you and I to sit here and say we don't want to impact the economy so much and it's not fair, but it's just as unfair to doctor's and nurses to force them into those decisions.

I've seen the way it impacts my wife, who is a primary care provider, when she has to deliver a cancer diagnosis or similar to a patient. I cannot imagine how it would weigh on her to tell someone they were going to die because they only have one child, and the patient next door has 3, so they get the ventilator.

 

[weekender21]

one regret I’ve had is not getting to Hawaii before the shut downs. I can think of no better place to get stuck.

I can.

There is no lockdown in Hawaii, you can leave. But if you arrive, your first 14 days will be the inside of your residence or hotel room.


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[Buckly]

I sympathize with your wife about her coworker it’s a sad thing. Your post however is contradiction. This coworker was not denied any medical care No one had to chose anything. Sometimes there’s just nothing you can do. I agree you can’t let the cases overwhelm the system at this point. Soon though there will be many, many ventilators available. No one will go without. That could be time to start easing off once huge supplies are built up

 

[Mennoniteman]

My wife's coworker (a nurse) passed away yesterday, 44 year old mother of 4, because she contracted COVID from a patient, and was told she was of the portion of the population that would likely have mild symptoms and was told to just quarantine by herself at home. Two days later her lungs failed due to the virus. No known underlying conditions.

I don't think anyone in the medical community would really argue with what he is saying here, including my sister, who is an epidemiologist. We could definitely just let the virus run it's course and spread and develop immunity. Two weeks seems shorter than what my sister said, who estimated closer to a month.

The problem is we would, in this country, be forcing medical providers for a one month period to choose who lives and who dies in many situations. It's easy for you and I to sit here and say we don't want to impact the economy so much and it's not fair, but it's just as unfair to doctor's and nurses to force them into those decisions.

I've seen the way it impacts my wife, who is a primary care provider, when she has to deliver a cancer diagnosis or similar to a patient. I cannot imagine how it would weigh on her to tell someone they were going to die because they only have one child, and the patient next door has 3, so they get the ventilator.

I'm sorry to hear that. My heart goes out to those 4 children. It's very obvious there's no easy answers with COVID19, the internet says methods and treatments that seem to work and show promise with people in some areas are totally different in other areas. It seems like COVID19 is like a chameleon that changes at will, and has a very dangerous side that only shows up in a small percentage of people. What we are seeing out in the countryside is way different from what we are hearing from the news about the cities. A carload of my relatives travelled to Connecticut for a wedding right before the shutdown and everyone got sick and tested positive with COVID19. They all recovered quickly except my 88 yr old uncle who is in failing health and had to go to the hospital for oxygen. A few days later he was out and recovered. No one else in our neighborhood here got sick and of the thousands of people that I know in the area, they were the only ones who got it. So, I'm glad that you shared this, because my information about the virus from credible sources like you is limited. As I've mentioned, what I'm seeing locally, and what I'm reading on the news is vastly different.

 

[DRandall90]

I'm sorry to hear that. My heart goes out to those 4 children. It's very obvious there's no easy answers with COVID19, the internet says methods and treatments that seem to work and show promise with people in some areas are totally different in other areas. It seems like COVID19 is like a chameleon that changes at will, and has a very dangerous side that only shows up in a small percentage of people. What we are seeing out in the countryside is way different from what we are hearing from the news about the cities. A carload of my relatives travelled to Connecticut for a wedding right before the shutdown and everyone got sick and tested positive with COVID19. They all recovered quickly except my 88 yr old uncle who is in failing health and had to go to the hospital for oxygen. A few days later he was out and recovered. No one else in our neighborhood here got sick and of the thousands of people that I know in the area, they were the only ones who got it. So, I'm glad that you shared this, because my information about the virus from credible sources like you is limited. As I've mentioned, what I'm seeing locally, and what I'm reading on the news is vastly different.

I didn't know my wife's coworker well, but you just hear about it and your heart sinks. Makes you really feel for the health workers right in the thick of it. One of the hospitals here is converted to Covid only hospital, and those doctors and nurses have no real choice on what they are going into daily. Those are the people, along with those that get this virus and can't fight it, I feel for.

I definitely don't want to see our economy crumble, but it is so tough to see where you draw the actual line.

I can definitely agree that the news has been horrible about covering this. It seems to either present this as mass panic, or not that big a deal. No one seems to be looking at this without some political background, which is really unfortunate.

I think to really answer the question that was first posed:

Am I scared, not for the human population or society as a whole. I fear that eventually, I will probably lose someone close that can't fight it. I definitely respect the virus and the potential damage it can cause. My dad is 75, has been smoking since he was 18. I fear for him, as I don't know if he would survive it if he got it, but like you said it's a total chameleon.This is some of the familial damage I worry about at times:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/south-dakota-lawmaker-dies-coronavirus-69978911

For anyone here, the best piece of advice I can provide (per my wife) is to buy a pulse oximeter. It's the little thing they put on your finger to measure oxygen levels when you are in the hospital. It's affordable. And based on the current treatment, it's the most effective tool for knowing when it is negatively impacting you. If your O2 stats start to drop significantly after you get sick, it means your lungs are not working effectively, and that shows when it's time to seek more help than self quarantine. They are impossibly tough to find right now though.

 

[Drycreek]

This Covid-19 stuff hasn’t been nearly as hard on us as it has in more populated areas. I just heard on the news that NYC had their worst day since it started. I can’t imagine living in a city with 8.5 million people more or less stacked on top of each other. My life hasn’t changed all that much except for the fact that we can’t eat out, don’t frequent the stores as much, and wash our hands like a coon all the time. I spent this morning and most of yesterday discing in my bargain pell lime from TSC into three plots that needed it. The folks that are really getting hit hard have a ways to go before they can relax I’m thinking.

 

[Buckly]

Density does cause problems. My County is quite large by area but not a lot of people. Around 150,000. We have 11 confirmed active cases None hospitalized. There was one death. No details about underlying conditions or anything. What NYC is seeing today is people that have been in the hospital mostly on ventilators for a couple weeks now. Very positive news though that the trend is going down and number of ICU and hospitalizations are down. That will mean lower deaths going forward.

 

[weekender21]

Total death predictions for the US way down. Even with these low numbers (60k) I think they’re still overshooting. Hawaii is predicted to peak in 3 days. According to this, somehow we’re gonna be 10x our daily average deaths in 72 hours. Yeah I don’t think so.


https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/michigan


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[DRandall90]

Total death predictions for the US way down. Even with these low numbers (60k) I think they’re still overshooting. Hawaii is predicted to peak in 3 days. According to this, somehow we’re gonna be 10x our daily average deaths in 72 hours. Yeah I don’t think so.


https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/michigan


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I tend to think this model is acceptable based on our current state (it has some wide error margins). The only thing I don't like is using death rate versus case count to develop the model. I realize the case count number would be impossible to come up with.

If you read their FAQ page has this interesting nugget:

Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?

Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.

 

[weekender21]

I tend to think this model is acceptable based on our current state (it has some wide error margins). The only thing I don't like is using death rate versus case count to develop the model. I realize the case count number would be impossible to come up with.

If you read their FAQ page has this interesting nugget:

Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?

Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.

Yeah, I’d agree it’s probably close. However, a week ago the same model was predicting 100k deaths in the US. I bet we’re below 50k by the time the dust settles.


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[DRandall90]

This is interesting, and all this while considering that we are all stuck in our houses right now avoiding exposure.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

 

[weekender21]

This is interesting, and all this while considering that we are all stuck in our houses right now avoiding exposure.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

But are we really? I'd like to see an accurate count on essential workers still working everyday. Movement is definitely down but people are buying groceries, gas, etc. Citizens have not been wearing masks (b/c CDC told us not to) or gloves until this week. Some areas (NY) started to shut their cities down after the spread was well underway.

 

[Drycreek]

I don’t know or care to guess how many are going to die from this, but I have to think if we don’t do something pretty quickly now, our economy is gonna be the biggest victim.
While I’m on my soapbox, I’ll make this statement also. The world we live in now can’t handle a thirties type depression like our fathers and grandfathers did. People back then took care of one another, this society will kill one another. Dire prediction I know, but the pessimist in me often wins out......

 

[OkieKubota]

I have been doing everything I did before I ever even heard of this deal...only thing I have really done any different is use hand sanitizer after using gas pumps and washing cash...lol

 

[Buckly]

But are we really? I'd like to see an accurate count on essential workers still working everyday. Movement is definitely down but people are buying groceries, gas, etc. Citizens have not been wearing masks (b/c CDC told us not to) or gloves until this week. Some areas (NY) started to shut their cities down after the spread was well underway.

this is why I think getting people back to work is not going to be as difficult or disastrous as some make it. Yes, people are are out work but the vast majority are still working. Some even hiring. Plus as mentioned people still need to go out and about. We are not as much isolated as it seems. To a point. I can see various stages to get the economy going. Your not going to see sports stadiums full or concerts but more like, if you can come up with a plan to be open safely within CDC guidelines then you can open. Distancing is going to be common until there’s a vaccine. Travel and restaurants will be naturally down anyways at first. Bring things back slowly and in stages And they are already saying if your in a hotspot it isn’t the same as somewhere with few cases. They’re working quicker than can be imagined on these antibody tests. Along with the regular rapid tests. I really believe science will catch up in the next month and the world can start to begin again. Different , especially at first. And at the speed they’re going they will have a vaccine by October November. Testing will be seamless and business will have figured out their plan. Am I an optimist? In my opinion you got to believe in the greatness and ingenuity of this Countries people and conquering this. Actually I’m betting on it.