NY cities numbers were actually down a little today, hopefully that’s a good sign they peaked early AND well below how bad it was predicted.
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Most health officials I trust are saying that this isn't even the real spike we should expect. With all the quarantine activity going on right now, it's not being spread very rapidly. The indication is that once we start to reintroduce people to their jobs and more normal daily life, we will see the real initial spike. The 'plan' is about getting enough medical supplies stockpiled to handle that wave without forcing doctors to decide who lives and dies. The second wave of the Spanish Flu was the deadliest one.
What's important about this model is it uses the rules in place in various states to determine the curves. Without those steps in place, this model would be a lot worse looking.
If you look at historical epidemics where quarantine was necessary, you see that there is a huge initial wave (again, as described above that most health experts say hasn't happened yet) they drew out for several years with the initial wave followed by several smaller waves of outbreaks.
I'm not trying to throw shade on the model, but we will live with this virus in some way or another for years barring a proven/tested vaccine.
In general, we were woefully unprepared for this, and we all hope that it ends up being 'not as bad' as they thought. It's an impossible question for anyone to answer whether we are doing too much.
If we end up with a lot fewer sick/deaths with everything we have done, you will have people saying "see, it wasn't even that bad, we should've just stayed open." But we will never know how bad it could have been if we just let it go because we didn't do that. Had we let it go and had deaths by the millions, we would have people saying "why didn't they do anything sooner?"
It's impossible to get absolutely right.