Missouri Dept of Conservation ''Targeted Kills'' in CWD ''Hot Zones''

I completely agree. But there is a big difference between claiming there is no science regarding CWD and saying that there is no scientific basis, or an insufficient scientific basis, for a particular management decision. Management decisions are always based on come combination of science, judgement, and politics. Both judgements and politics vary from situation to situation.
You suppose we've got enough data after decades of aggressive culling to review whether aggressive culling is an effective means of stopping CWD? I also think it's time we review deer populations and human CJD incidence in areas that have had CWD for 40+ years. Maybe we might learn that the quacks theories never panned out, the deer are fine, and nobody has turned into flesh eating zombies.
 
You suppose we've got enough data after decades of aggressive culling to review whether aggressive culling is an effective means of stopping CWD? I also think it's time we review deer populations and human CJD incidence in areas that have had CWD for 40+ years. Maybe we might learn that the quacks theories never panned out, the deer are fine, and nobody has turned into flesh eating zombies.
I don't think I ever claimed that aggressive culling would stop CWD. What I said was the best we could hope for was to use science and good judgement to slow the spread and give nature time to respond.

As for aggressive culling, there are many factors involved. I'm not in a position to say whether or not it is a useful technique in any specific circumstance.
 
I don't think I ever claimed that aggressive culling would stop CWD. What I said was the best we could hope for was to use science and good judgement to slow the spread and give nature time to respond.

As for aggressive culling, there are many factors involved. I'm not in a position to say whether or not it is a useful technique in any specific circumstance.

I’m not saying you did. I was just asking if you thought decades of culling was enough data to merit a review of the tactic by now.


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I’m not saying you did. I was just asking if you thought decades of culling was enough data to merit a review of the tactic by now.


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There are a large number of factors. Culling deer with the intent to slow CWD is done very differently in different locations. How prevalent the disease was in a target area before culling was begun varies significantly between locations. The target of culling can vary as well. Some places focused on reducing overall populations and others targeted specific categories of deer. The epidemiologic data can vary from location to location. Yarding in the north may contribute more to spread than in areas where deer don't yard.

Because each application of culling seems to vary significantly, It becomes difficult to compare to a control group. Drycreek suggests that CWD management is similar to COVID. In the sense that the science lagged the progress of the disease and politics and judgement filled the void where the science was unclear, he is right.

The problem is that many folks take positions based on there perspective. Someone who enjoys hunting deer and wants to have deer available to hunt, is going to be predisposed against heavy culling. An insurance company that doesn't want to make payouts to deer/vehicle collision victims, along with a parent that just lost a kid to one, is going to be predisposed in favor of heavy culling.

Personally, I don't know if heavy culling is and effective technique or not. It may turn out that it can be part of a suite of techniques that are beneficial or that it has no value.

My point is that point source baiting is not good approach irrespective of CWD and that starting a baiting war makes a bad situation worse. Second, while there will always be some who act foolishly, most landowners, as letemgrow demonstrates, are pretty good stewards of their land and will not use management tags to hurt their objectives. We also need to keep in mind that our objectives for our properties can be different than our neighbors.
 
If there appears to be no timeline that will ever produce an outcome that will give us clarity as to whether this ever worked or if CWD is even a threat to deer or humans, how many more years do we need to keep culling? Do we have to cull for another 50 or 100 years only to look back and be told, "We have no idea if this worked or if it's even a problem, but we have to keep going." ?

There are many similarities to human health that require this same review. The answers will be very uncomfortable, so a big role of science is to make sure that anyone who asks the wrong questions is censored and cancelled. Too many people are not capable of considering nefarious intent, negligence, or ignorance as to why something is apparently so baffling. I'm not. I will ask the uncomfortable questions. Sometimes the only answer you need is the one you don't get.

None of my questions have been answered, and it's been decades. Time's up with this habitat manager.
 
If there appears to be no timeline that will ever produce an outcome that will give us clarity as to whether this ever worked or if CWD is even a threat to deer or humans, how many more years do we need to keep culling? Do we have to cull for another 50 or 100 years only to look back and be told, "We have no idea if this worked or if it's even a problem, but we have to keep going." ?

There are many similarities to human health that require this same review. The answers will be very uncomfortable, so a big role of science is to make sure that anyone who asks the wrong questions is censored and cancelled. Too many people are not capable of considering nefarious intent, negligence, or ignorance as to why something is apparently so baffling. I'm not. I will ask the uncomfortable questions. Sometimes the only answer you need is the one you don't get.

None of my questions have been answered, and it's been decades. Time's up with this habitat manager.
Quite an interesting perspective. Doctors bled patients as a cure for many, many years. The nay-sayers were eventually proven right. One doctor posited that disease was caused by invisible stuff we now call germs. Completely derided by his peers at the time. Over time, proven right. It took many years for the standards of practice to change.

There is nothing wrong with the questions you ask. While there is lots of good science that has been done on CWD and a lot more that is ongoing, There is not enough to say management plan A works and plan B does not. In the absence of good data, judgement is the key. Different folks will have different judgements.

Right now, I don't have CWD in my county, but it is close. Will culling in hot zones slow its progress to my area? Maybe, and maybe not. I am probably more willing to accept the practice as it does not impact me negatively right now, and it may benefit my. On the other hand, if I was in a CWD hot zone, I might be less receptive to the practice because it negatively impacts me directly even though it may help the guy a few counties away.

I certainly understand your frustration. I'm certainly not a proponent of culling for CWD. At the same time, my mind is not close to it as part of a larger strategy. My guess is that it will be several more decades until we can look back and have a clear view of the best course of action.
 
Fair enough.

Imagine for a moment the deer start dying en masse, and humans break out with CJD en masse. If any of the things come true that they are theorizing, the pace at which we're learning about CWD, we're all goners. 90% of the grocery store products, and 99% of the convenience store and restaurant products could have CWD prions in them now. Enriched wheat flour, corn syrup, all the seed oils, and every meat product. Every acre of crop, pasture, and forest land in this country is potentially contaminated, and no longer fit to grow prion-free food. It's in every country to which we've exported food, every waterway in which human waste has been discharged and those areas downstream, including the ocean.

Now, if we're serious about these risks, should we really be going at it with just Winchesters, corn piles, and extra tags?
 
Who is this "they" you keep referring to? Care to cite actual scientific publication?

Nobody can cite a scientific publication because there aren’t any. Nothing being written about CWD would ever be accepted and published by a scientific journal because there is no science to review and it would never pass the standards for publishing.

The ‘they’ is whoever the media decides to use to write these ever present boogey man stories. Another one just came out in Fortune magazine, and it’s just like every other fear mongering article written. Long on fear and BS, and zero science.


Go through this story and note all the non-scientific qualifying words in their statements: “could” “could” “could” “there is no evidence” “it could happen” “scientists believe” “might” “researchers aren’t sure” “also possible” “theoretically possible”

None of that is science. It’s been over 50 years and they have nothing. No herd collapse, no human transmission. Yet this exact same article keeps getting written. Why?


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I’m hopeful this is nothing but a bunch of leeches in the science for sale business trying to keep their pockets full, and not some nefarious next problem to suddenly burst onto the scene like so many other things that just magically appear and generate lots of money for the contagion business.


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Nobody can cite a scientific publication because there aren’t any. Nothing being written about CWD would ever be accepted and published by a scientific journal because there is no science to review and it would never pass the standards for publishing.

The ‘they’ is whoever the media decides to use to write these ever present boogey man stories. Another one just came out in Fortune magazine, and it’s just like every other fear mongering article written. Long on fear and BS, and zero science.


Go through this story and note all the non-scientific qualifying words in their statements: “could” “could” “could” “there is no evidence” “it could happen” “scientists believe” “might” “researchers aren’t sure” “also possible” “theoretically possible”

None of that is science. It’s been over 50 years and they have nothing. No herd collapse, no human transmission. Yet this exact same article keeps getting written. Why?


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Hit up scholar.google.com and search chronic wasting disease. There are plenty of papers from scientific research.

I'll agree Fortune isn't exactly a great source for CWD facts. Don't blame science for what the media writes.
 
Hit up scholar.google.com and search chronic wasting disease. There are plenty of papers from scientific research.

I'll agree Fortune isn't exactly a great source for CWD facts. Don't blame science for what the media writes.

If that’s your side of the argument, you need to post it. There is nothing out there to prop up any of the fear that’s being spread. I’ve read about the studies where science shot the brains of mice and monkeys full of prions and then found prions where they put them.

“We put prions there, and now they’re there.” None of those transmission vectors are possible in nature, yet they kept on. For what practical purpose? I have no idea.

You have to subscribe to the belief that intelligent design is so flawed that everything must be medicated, mutated, vaccinated, and castrated to be made right and survive. I’m a fairly spiritual person and will side with the creator when it comes to the much of the new science that’s coming.

But I’m also open minded. If there was anything more than fear porn and pay to play science fiction, I’d hear the quacks out.


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As I repeated, some will be zealots and advocate for a position. They will believe what they want. Others will use the science we do have, while certainly not complete, to make the best judgements they can. For the latter, here is a link to RGrizzz's list: Scholarly Articles on CWD.

Many of these articles contain citations to specific studies.

There are few in the press who have a grasp of the science in any area. The press is generally motivated to attract eyeballs, and sensationalism seems to do the trick. There are special interests on all sides of most issues as well.

Lots of good science on CWD exists. Whether the policies and management practices used in certain locations have a sufficient scientific basis is a very different question.
 
Lots of good science on CWD exists. Whether the policies and management practices used in certain locations have a sufficient scientific basis is a very different question.
This! It's hard to make policy decisions when you only have a few pieces of the jigsaw puzzle.

I think the toughest thing about CWD, and science in general, is when we learn something, we often realize there's more that we don't know than we thought. That's a tough cycle, but progress isn't always a straight line.
 
This! It's hard to make policy decisions when you only have a few pieces of the jigsaw puzzle.

I think the toughest thing about CWD, and science in general, is when we learn something, we often realize there's more that we don't know than we thought. That's a tough cycle, but progress isn't always a straight line.
That is exactly right, and science can be slow. You don't know what you don't know. So, when hypotheses are developed and tested, the results can often raise additional questions. While technology has been moving along according to Moore's rule, basic science plods along at a much slower pace. It becomes even more difficult to apply the science that we do have in the uncontrolled environment of nature. Then add to that the confusion that special interests and politics bring to the table. No wonder many folks are frustrated.
 
As I repeated, some will be zealots and advocate for a position. They will believe what they want.
Is there evidence that anything that has been done has been effective in stopping the disease?
Is there evidence that CWD has caused even a small herd collapse anywhere?
Is there evidence CWD can cross over to humans?

Read a thousand studies on CWD, none of them can answer those three questions.

Lining up behind the CWD hysteria with no expectation of results is the very definition of zealotry. Say the word science all you want, it's not there. Instead of saying it, show it. Show me. I will admit I'm wrong if you can show me some evidence. There is no room for belief in science. It is or it isn't. And 'isn't' is ok for a while. But not for 57 years.
 
Is there evidence that anything that has been done has been effective in stopping the disease?
Is there evidence that CWD has caused even a small herd collapse anywhere?
Is there evidence CWD can cross over to humans?

Read a thousand studies on CWD, none of them can answer those three questions.

Lining up behind the CWD hysteria with no expectation of results is the very definition of zealotry. Say the word science all you want, it's not there. Instead of saying it, show it. Show me. I will admit I'm wrong if you can show me some evidence. There is no room for belief in science. It is or it isn't. And 'isn't' is ok for a while. But not for 57 years.
I think we are talking past each other. Science doesn't answer arbitrary questions. It is a method where hypotheses are proposed, and experiment is constructed, and tests provide some level of evidence in support or reject the hypothesis. It can take year or decades to even construct some experiments. As RGrizzz indicated, there are many solid scholarly articles that provide references to studies related to CWD. Science takes small bites. As evidence builds over time in support of a hypothesis, it becomes "accepted science", but it is always "believed" to be true, but only until such time that new hypotheses and experiments produce sufficient evidence to refute it.

As far as your questions go, they are the kind of questions we ask ourselves before we even posit any hypothesis.

You are taking a political position on CWD, and there is nothing wrong with that, it is what you believe. I'm not arguing either for or against you position. I'm simply saying that, while we have a lot of good science on CWD and more is emerging, we have no agreed on management approaches. We don't even have agreed on objectives across the community. There are all kinds of special interests that come into play as management practices are established and executed.

Personally, I don't think CWD is desirable and want to avoid it in my area as long as possible. I think there are many management practices that are being employed that are prudent, especially in my state. If one looks at the epidemiological data, it is pretty clear that CWD spread to the east via penned deer operations. Restrictions on the transport and penning of deer are reasonable practices. Restrictions on using urine based attractants have little impact on the hunter and whether proven to reduce spread of CWD or not, seem like prudent restrictions given the current state of the science. Similarly, restrictions on feeding deer seem prudent to me because of their benefit in reducing disease spread in general, irrespective of whether they slow CWD transmission specifically or not. Having said that, there are other management practices that are much more controversial like heavy culling. The "cost" to hunters seems pretty high and the benefits in slowing the spread of CWD are not clear. This too is a political position that I take.
 
We probably are talking past one another. It's important to understand that I'm not operating on belief or faith. I'm looking at what we do know, and we cannot discount that for theories on what we don't know.

Herds are not collapsing.
No containment measure has shown ability to reverse prevalence in endemic areas or stop further spread.
Scientists have been working feverishly to prove deer to human transmission is possible and they haven't been able to do it.

Those statements are true.

Agencies are finding deer that test positive after being killed. None of them are finding dead deer. This has been one giant dud of a 57 year epidemic. If it's been decades and herds are ever growing in CWD areas, is it really an epidemic?
 
We probably are talking past one another. It's important to understand that I'm not operating on belief or faith. I'm looking at what we do know, and we cannot discount that for theories on what we don't know.

Herds are not collapsing.
No containment measure has shown ability to reverse prevalence in endemic areas or stop further spread.
Scientists have been working feverishly to prove deer to human transmission is possible and they haven't been able to do it.

Those statements are true.

Agencies are finding deer that test positive after being killed. None of them are finding dead deer. This has been one giant dud of a 57 year epidemic. If it's been decades and herds are ever growing in CWD areas, is it really an epidemic?
That may be a bit of an oversimplification. Deer herds are doing different things in different areas and CWD is only one of a wide variety of factors. I've never met a biologist who ever had expectation of reversing prevalence in endemic areas or stopping further spread. I think most acknowledge that those are unrealistic goals. I think the most that can be hoped for is to slow the spread of the disease into new areas.

As for jumping the species barrier, we know diseases can and do jump it, but it is rare and takes a very long time. It may or may not mean deer to human transmission. TSE's like CWD and CJD are somewhat unique as a class of diseases in that prions are involved. We don't even know what the function of normal prions is in the human brain, let alone how the misfolded that cause disease fully act. Other disease agents like bacteria and viruses are better understood.

You frame you statement as though scientists are predisposed to finding that CWD can jump the species barrier. While scientists are human and all enter with their own biases, as a general class, most will address the question objectively. Perhaps it would be better put as "Scientists have been working diligently to determine if CWD presents a disease risk to humans and if so, how how much. " CJD is a very rare disease in humans, perhaps one or two cases in a million per year. So far, there are no confirmed cases of CWD being a factor in human disease.

One thing that makes CWD interesting is that some states have been dealing with CWD for a long time. I'm not sure they have yet achieved an equilibrium after all these years. Other states have only recently begun dealing with it, and it seems they are benefiting from what was learned in states hit early. Still other states have not yet begun to deal with it.
 
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