Here is some history. He walked up on my decoy during a rainstorm last year. At first sight, I saw him as a 2.5 so I put down the bow and grabbed my phone. Upon further review, I was fooled into thinking he was tight bellied because of all the white. I think you guys may be dead on with 4.5. For what I have going on at my place, a jawbone may have to be my trophy because the racks just aren't doing it.