Antler Bell Curve

[Native Hunter]

One of the discussions in Bull's threads got me to wondering about this. I found the link below.

My question is - How much does this vary at different locations across the country?

http://hosted.verticalresponse.com/287068/d8f908dabf/1246012115/3ededa88b5/

 

[Btaylor]

There would certainly be some variance geographically but I would venture to guess that the variance is not significant. That study follows very closely with a private lands study I have seen here in Arkansas that tracked antler metrics, body weights and age. It was not presented in a curve graph but the data would certainly have followed very closely to that in the link. That was I think 15 years of data collected from a lot of clubs leasing from the same timber company covering I would guess in excess of 20k acres of river delta ground.

 

[Chainsaw]

Here our 4 1/2 seem to normally grow to 118 to 128. I have seen a few deer shot that were 150 to 155 and one that was 172. Our normal good deer are eight pointers that go 118 to 128. Here these are special but anything over that is a gift. They exist but are above the curve here in this part of NY. In western NY the normal good rack is considerably larger.
We have a good proportion of nine and ten pointers but few make it to 4 1/2 so we don't experience the scores that we could. There was a time not long ago that few made it to 2 1/2 so who knows what the future may bring.

 

[Bullwinkle]

Most QDMers claim a mature buck is 4 or 5 years old. I know there are exceptions but we have not seen awesome antlers till 6 years old. Its really hard to get bucks this age by us. We had a number of 140" make it through gun season last year. They disappeared??? Winter, wolves, car, ??? Did they move? I know one we passed that moved 1 mile and was shot this year-170". I had him aged at 5 last year so he would have been 6. Why he moved???? Neighbor shot him and we didn't get a tooth. What's weird is he had a small home area on my farm. Seemed to be a resident and would have easily been king of my place this year. The neighbor who shot him said he lived on his 80 and never seemed to leave

 

[wbpdeer]

Native Hunter,

That is an excellent report in the link you provided. Thanks for sharing.

Wayne

 

[MarkDarvin]

I had him aged at 5 last year so he would have been 6.

You're braver than me. I quick aging live deer since I got kicked in the groin.

 

[Gator]

OMy question is - How much does this vary at different locations across the country?

My guess is A LOT! It's also going to vary quite a bit between bucks with different number of tines.

 

[dogghr]

That was an interesting read Native. Bell curves are always sliding as a whole to the left or right of a graph and in height , affected by the factors controlling the group. A better name than bell curve would be normal distribution but guess that is semantics.
In answer to you question, I think that is going to vary not only in areas of the country, but even in groups within miles of each other. My classic example, is that bell would be to the left of shown graft in county my farm is in. Yet just 50+ miles away, in our bow hunting only counties, that graph would sit more to the right of me, and probably skewed slightly to the right in height. So yes it varies, but the pattern would be similar anywhere especially with prey animals. I think it would be affected by population, food, predators, etc. In some areas, disease would change the shape if older age or even younger age, are affected more by that particular disease or effect. Examples would be EHD that tends to affect more mature deer, and predators that tend to affect younger deer. Interesting study.

 

[j-bird]

I think EVERY trait of that curve will change based on various input conditions. Management, soil fertility, rain fall, cover types, will all affect that curve. It may make it more narrow or wider, it may shift it one way or the other and it may shift the height (numbers of bucks) as well.

I also agree in that the curve could be affected on a very localized level as well, simply based on how much those inputs can change by being just a couple of miles away in a different location.

Did anyone see what the article defined as a mature buck? That alone can stir up arguments.

 

[Blizzard Ridge]

In my part of the country I can see 2 year olds upwards of 170", I had a mid 60's buck roaming one of my farms this year that is 2.5. I have also seen 4.5 and 5.5 yr olds that wouldn't make 140" but on average I would say 4 yr old and older deer in my area will break the 140" mark with a high percentage of the mature bucks breaking into the mid 50's. A 170"+ buck is an anomaly no matter what part of the world you are in. In Illinois with good food, moderate weather and high mineral soil I believe the anomaly becomes more attainable, this combined with a bunch of deer managers in the area make for good odds of growing giant racks.

I also agree with J-bird. This can become very localized. I know I have farms with several mature bucks in the mid 50's or better and you can drive 3 or 4 miles down the road to one of my other farms and there may be 2 big racked mature bucks in the area. I believe most of this has to do with hunting pressure on neighboring properties though. You are always going to shoot the buck with the biggest rack that is mature enough for whatever you standard is. With more hunters in the area those caliber bucks have a better chance of being killed.

 

[Native Hunter]

In my part of the country I can see 2 year olds upwards of 170", I had a mid 60's buck roaming one of my farms this year that is 2.5. I have also seen 4.5 and 5.5 yr olds that wouldn't make 140" but on average I would say 4 yr old and older deer in my area will break the 140" mark with a high percentage of the mature bucks breaking into the mid 50's. A 170"+ buck is an anomaly no matter what part of the world you are in. In Illinois with good food, moderate weather and high mineral soil I believe the anomaly becomes more attainable, this combined with a bunch of deer managers in the area make for good odds of growing giant racks.

I also agree with J-bird. This can become very localized. I know I have farms with several mature bucks in the mid 50's or better and you can drive 3 or 4 miles down the road to one of my other farms and there may be 2 big racked mature bucks in the area. I believe most of this has to do with hunting pressure on neighboring properties though. You are always going to shoot the buck with the biggest rack that is mature enough for whatever you standard is. With more hunters in the area those caliber bucks have a better chance of being killed.

Blizzard, that's impressive for 2.5 year olds. You are definitely in a top notch area.

Obviously, many factors will affect the shape of the curve. It would be interesting to be able to compare curves from different locations that were based on the same data and criteria.

 

[Bullwinkle]

At my upcoming Giles Island hunt the guide sits with you and films. I think I can take a management buck or trophy. Guide tells me if I can shoot or not. It will be interesting to learn what parameters they are using. Most likely age, hopefully I'll learn a trick or two.

 

[Blizzard Ridge]

Blizzard, that's impressive for 2.5 year olds. You are definitely in a top notch area.

Obviously, many factors will affect the shape of the curve. It would be interesting to be able to compare curves from different locations that were based on the same data and criteria.

Native I would like to start a camera survey this year utilizing last years camera data along with this years to see exactly how our area stacks up. I know as of lately we were in a decline do to EHD taking out a bunch of the 3 yr old and older bucks. I noticed a big jump this year and I expect to see the same going into 2017 velvet season. I will have a better feel for our age structure after knowing each buck for two years. With our management plan I hope to see an explosion in 4 yr old plus bucks in year 4 -5 of the cycle. I am blessed with a big percentage of my ground being located around other management and trophy hunters that are out to let bucks get to that elusive 6+ age mark. We will see how it goes.

 

[Chainsaw]

Blizzard, I feel blessed to have some of the finest deer hunting around and am completely satisfied, in fact even very thrilled with it. Holy Cow though! To have neighbors with sizable land that are managing for 6 year old deer--That is as good as it gets. That is a rare pocket of deer land you are connected to. Good for you.

 

[Blizzard Ridge]

Blizzard, I feel blessed to have some of the finest deer hunting around and am completely satisfied, in fact even very thrilled with it. Holy Cow though! To have neighbors with sizable land that are managing for 6 year old deer--That is as good as it gets. That is a rare pocket of deer land you are connected to. Good for you.

Thank you. Don't get me wrong I have some pieces that are in brown and down areas as well. But I am fortunate enough to have a few really good farms as far as the neighbors go.

 

[Baker]

I was at a CKWR seminar when Stuart gave this presentation along with the other parts not mentioned here.He is a super analytical bright guy very passionate about whitetails. His 40,000 acre Faith ranch has had ongoing cutting edge research for decades now. My ranch is directly across the Rio Grande from his.

In that neighborhood mature is considered 5+ though no one takes bucks before 7 or older. While he doesn't say it specifically here I suspects he is referring to 6+ as mature. The factor that effects antler quality of mature bucks and there distribution along the bell is nutrition and genetics. Harvest patterns, ehd, and other such environmental influences aren't relevant to this discussion. The reference is to living deer and note that he is referencing an essentially unhunted population. Of course the bell can be corrupted with excess harvest on any particular age group. The point is what a herd could look like.

Of more interest to me than the bell itself is how the bell can be shifted. I haven't looked but you can probably google the rest of his talk either thru the Ceasar kleburg Wildlife Research site or Stuart Stedman. He gives very compelling research in to the effects of nutrition on epigenetic markers and how they effect genetic expression. Over time the bell can be shifted [ positively or negatively ] by the nutritional environment the animal is raised in. This can be very interesting to the manager in a position to truly manage a whitetail herd.

Regarding age of peak antler growth I can say unequivocally that thru much of the whitetail range bucks do not realize their best racks until 6 or older . On my ranch it is 7-9 with some even older as I have literally hundreds of examples to go on. On my La. farm I am still experimenting but every indicator is that optimum is at least 6.

 

[Native Hunter]

I was at a CKWR seminar when Stuart gave this presentation along with the other parts not mentioned here.He is a super analytical bright guy very passionate about whitetails. His 40,000 acre Faith ranch has had ongoing cutting edge research for decades now. My ranch is directly across the Rio Grande from his.

In that neighborhood mature is considered 5+ though no one takes bucks before 7 or older. While he doesn't say it specifically here I suspects he is referring to 6+ as mature. The factor that effects antler quality of mature bucks and there distribution along the bell is nutrition and genetics. Harvest patterns, ehd, and other such environmental influences aren't relevant to this discussion. The reference is to living deer and note that he is referencing an essentially unhunted population. Of course the bell can be corrupted with excess harvest on any particular age group. The point is what a herd could look like.

Of more interest to me than the bell itself is how the bell can be shifted. I haven't looked but you can probably google the rest of his talk either thru the Ceasar kleburg Wildlife Research site or Stuart Stedman. He gives very compelling research in to the effects of nutrition on epigenetic markers and how they effect genetic expression. Over time the bell can be shifted [ positively or negatively ] by the nutritional environment the animal is raised in. This can be very interesting to the manager in a position to truly manage a whitetail herd.

Regarding age of peak antler growth I can say unequivocally that thru much of the whitetail range bucks do not realize their best racks until 6 or older . On my ranch it is 7-9 with some even older as I have literally hundreds of examples to go on. On my La. farm I am still experimenting but every indicator is that optimum is at least 6.

Great response Baker and very insightful - especially concerning the fact that this is, "...living deer ...[and]... an essentially unhunted population...." To me this illustrates that in hunted populations without proper management that allows deer to reach their full potential, it's likely the percentage of bucks with the best potential that reach that potential will be even lower than his numbers, because people will generally be shooting based on rack size rather than age.

Thanks for sharing this information....

 

[X-farmerdan]

I guess I'll be the goat on this one. Good research requires many observations and replications. Even then, at the end of the study, one must ask if the inferences (watch that leap from small samples to inferences) are transferable to other locations / situations. This is a good piece of information compiled from less than ideally controlled conditions. Don't don't get me wrong. I think its's good information, but perhaps not applicable to anything you might face.

Bell curves are cool, but, in reality, most curves are skewed left or right. For most of us, i would hypothesize our curves are skewed left. Flip a coin a million times and you'll probably end up with a bell curve. In the short run, it isn't necessary for that to happen. Flip that coin 20 times. The odds are great that you'll not end up with a 50-50 distribution..

I hate to be the a-hole here, but I take exception to the title, many of the statements, and most of the conclusions in the article. LOL! Those are all assertions of mine...and I have no more evidence that I'm right! So, we'll stop the dissection right there and I'll buckle my seat belt!