Lake effect snow

FYI

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171115175313.htm

Shape of Lake Ontario generates white-out blizzards, study shows
So much snow that researchers needed the help of tractor-mounted snowblowers
Date:
November 15, 2017
Source:
National Science Foundation
Summary:
A 6-foot-wide snow blower mounted on a tractor makes a lot of sense when you live on the Tug Hill Plateau. Tug Hill, in upstate New York, is one of the snowiest places in the Eastern US and experiences some of the most intense snowstorms in the world. This largely rural region, just east of Lake Ontario, gets an average of 20 feet of snow a year, and a new report explains why.
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A 6-foot-wide snow blower mounted on a tractor makes a lot of sense when you live on the Tug Hill Plateau. Tug Hill, in upstate New York, is one of the snowiest places in the Eastern U.S. and experiences some of the most intense snowstorms in the world. This largely rural region, just east of Lake Ontario, gets an average of 20 feet of snow a year.

Hence the tractor-mounted snow blower.

The region's massive snow totals are due to lake-effect snowstorms and, it turns out, to the shape of Lake Ontario.

Lake-effect storms begin when a cold mass of air moves over relatively warm water. The heat and moisture from the water destabilize the air mass and cause intense, long-lasting storms. Lake-effect snow is common in the Great Lakes region and in areas downwind of large bodies of water, including the Great Salt Lake.

Researchers, including the University of Utah's Jim Steenburgh and University of Wyoming's Bart Geerts, now report that these intense snowstorms are fueled by air circulation driven by the heat released by the lake, and that the shoreline geography of Lake Ontario affects the formation and location of this circulation. The result? Very heavy snowfall.

The findings, published in three papers, show how the shorelines of lakes may help forecasters determine the impacts of lake-effect storms.

"Lake Ontario's east-west orientation allows intense bands of snow to form," said Ed Bensman, a program director in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funded the research. "This study found that the shape of the lake's shoreline can have an important influence on the low-level winds that lead to bands of snow for long periods of time -- and to heavy snow totals. The research team analyzed the strength of these snow bands, and their formation and persistence. Snow bands were often active for several days."

Lake-effect

When land breezes move offshore from places where the coastline bulges out into a lake, unstable air masses form and drive a narrow band of moisture that dumps its moisture as snow on a strip of land downwind of the lake.

Steenburgh said it's long been known that breezes coming from the shore onto a lake help initiate and direct the formation of snow bands. Steenburgh and Geerts, and colleagues from universities in Illinois, Pennsylvania and upstate New York, traveled to Lake Ontario as part of an NSF-funded project called Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS). The scientists investigated several questions about lake-effect systems:

  • What environmental factors have the greatest influence on the amount of snowfall and location of snowbands over and near Lake Ontario?
  • How does the interplay between wind and clouds produce long-lived snowbands far downstream of open water?
  • How does the local terrain influence the strength and longevity of these systems?
To find out, Geerts' team flew a Wyoming King Air research plane through winter storms, and Steenburgh's group set up weather monitoring equipment, including profiling radars and snow-measurement stations, to monitor the arrival of lake-effect storms near Tug Hill.

The researchers witnessed the region's intense snowfall, including one storm that dropped 40 inches in 24 hours. Snowfall rates often exceeded 4 inches per hour. "That's an amazing rate," Steenburgh said. "It's just an explosion of snow."

The role of the bulge

Wyoming Cloud Radar aboard the King Air plane detected an intense secondary air circulation across the main snow band. "This circulation had a narrow updraft, creating and lifting snow like a fountain in a narrow strip that dumped heavy snow where it made landfall," Geerts said. Using a weather model, Steenburgh's team found that this circulation's origin was a land breeze generated by the lake's uneven shoreline geography.

In some cases, another land breeze generated a second snow band that merged with the first. "The intense secondary circulation, with updrafts up to 20 miles per hour, had never been observed before," Geerts said.

One particular shoreline feature played a large role: a gentle, broad bulge along Lake Ontario's southern shore that extends from about Niagara Falls in the west to Rochester, New York, in the east.

"This bulge was important in determining where the lake-effect snow bands developed," Steenburgh said. "A bulge near Oswego, New York, on the southeast shore, also contributed to an increase in the precipitation downstream of Lake Ontario over Tug Hill."

Steenburgh says the residents of the region take the heavy snowfall in stride. Roads are kept plowed, and the team found that on many days, the biggest challenge was just getting out of the driveway of the house they stayed in. Once the tractor-snow blower was fired up, however, the researchers had a clear shot.

"We're a bunch of snow geeks," Steenburgh said. "We love to see it snowing like that. It's really pretty incredible. And our friends on Tug Hill made sure we could do our research."

Better forecasts

Incorporating considerations of shoreline geography into weather forecast models can help predict which communities might be most affected by snowstorms, Steenburgh said. Understanding the effect of breezes that arise from the shore's shape is the key.

"If we want to pinpoint where the lake-effect is going to be, we're going to have to do a very good job of simulating what's happening along these coastal areas," he said.


Journal References:

  1. Philip T. Bergmaier, Bart Geerts, Leah S. Campbell, W. James Steenburgh. The OWLeS IOP2b Lake-Effect Snowstorm: Dynamics of the Secondary Circulation. Monthly Weather Review, 2017; 145 (7): 2437 DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0462.1
  2. Leah S. Campbell, W. James Steenburgh. The OWLeS IOP2b Lake-Effect Snowstorm: Mechanisms Contributing to the Tug Hill Precipitation Maximum. Monthly Weather Review, 2017; 145 (7): 2461 DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0461.1
  3. W. James Steenburgh, Leah S. Campbell. The OWLeS IOP2b Lake-Effect Snowstorm: Shoreline Geometry and the Mesoscale Forcing of Precipitation. Monthly Weather Review, 2017; 145 (7): 2421 DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0460.1
 
Saw one of the research teams last winter. They were out there at times when no one else dared. They were snowed in place/almost completely buried for a day or two once that I saw but they somehow made it through OK. Am hoping Sunday is a false alarm. I still have 14 cameras out and 8 popup blinds and a new 550 lb. tool chest in the back of the pickup to unload. Plus I have 45,000 daylily seeds to plant yet and still haven't even shot my buck. And the boat isn't even covered yet nor do the rednecks have buddy heaters in them. I'm just not ready for the lake effect snow at this date. The snow doesn't bring cold with it but it demobilizes us making tractors, four wheelers and side by sides useless. And yes of course we have snowmobiles but they don't do well in lake effect snow; It is just too soft and the snowmobiles simply sink in it like a four wheeler would in a bog.

But like Chummer I still love this place!
 
54 on Tuesday so it will be short lived. I am planning on coming up Tuesday to do some tracking on the new property. I have given up at camp. Nothing older than 1.5 on cam for almost a month. Hunt club next to me has only shot two deer and have seen nothing older than that either. We are really seeing the effect of those two horrendous back to back winters of 2013 and 14. The nearly 100% fawn kill off those two years coupled with guys with itchy trigger fingers because they are only seeing spikes is going to make next couple years tough as well. Then there is a guy I know that hunts a couple miles away but over the no doe zone line. He tells me he had to shoot a big doe because it is the only deer he has seen all year. Brilliant logic on that one. How the DEC is still giving doe tags for that zone is mystifying.
 
North UP has had at least 5" since before Halloween. Foot of fluff, maybe 8" on ground. Buthe you get next to lake and grass.

Not typical. Though 2014 we got 48" on 11/11. Was tough getting in to camps, and woods. I didn't come in, stayed out all day.
 
I am looking forward to it. Calling for 12" tomorrow and 50 on Tuesday. I am boardered by 26k acres of state land, I am going to find a track and see where it takes me. Dress light and make a day of it. There is a creek a few hundred yard off my property that is supposedly a migration trail. Plan On checking it out.
 
We are really seeing the effect of those two horrendous back to back winters of 2013 and 14.
Same here in the Northern Lower, so I can only imagine the effects in the U.P. My herd is almost back to normal but still nobody is seeing deer. I know it's not just my hunt camp, because there's no shots around us either.



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Weather channel says you have had 100 inches of snow so far Jeremy. Hope you are in on this two day melt. I know it will just put a dent in eight ft. of snow but anything would help.
 
18" of powder on the ground by me. Pushing 100" of snowfall. Glad I got a wide track, long track.

Though we had a foot for deer season, came before Halloween. But rained day after Thanksgiving. But came back
 

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You do know, it is not 8' on the ground, even though 100" of snow has fallen?

You are absolutely correct on that Berserker. It won't measure even near eight feet but most of the eight feet of it though compacted would have likely still been there. It got very packed here (ten to fifteen miles from Chummer's) as it has been cold in between some wetter snow events and it is quite heavy and extremely difficult to dig thru, with no powder to it at all. Those wide, long tracks you mentioned are amazing in what they can handle. I don't have such a beast, just have trail machines (mistake on my part).

In my yard a few days ago there had been just under thirty inches but it had compacted down to twenty inches. Yesterday with a short fling with 45 degrees got it down to ten inches of granular in level open spots as there was actually melting taking place. I don't know the total snowfall on this property so far but think it was less than 45 inches.

Still, animals have had a tough week. The snow was hard but not enough to walk on top of it. I was snowshoeing two days ago across a "standing" bean field where the deer had done some digging and from very far away an eagle flew towards me apparently checking me out. It was a huge effort to walk so I was zigging and zagging taking advantage of the low spots the deer had kept open so I must have looked interesting to the eagle. I turned to stare at him and held my arms up high and he suddenly back pedaled, turned around in mid air and flew in a straight line back towards where he had come from. He was still fairly high, not in an attack mode at all yet and 60 yards or so out but apparently I wasn't what he expected.
 
I have been very sick for a bit and not paying attention to much. I knew camp was getting crushed but I wasn't paying attention. Just checked the neighbors web cam, loooks like 1 foot on the level so probably 2' in the woods. We will need an early spring or there will be die off. Tough to have that much snow December-April
 
Sorry to hear to have been sick. Hope you are having a speedy recovery. Anything you need help with at camp feel free to call.
 
Sorry to hear to have been sick. Hope you are having a speedy recovery. Anything you need help with at camp feel free to call.
Thanks. Everything is closed up. I will be back up in March. I am thinking about selling the 70 acres I bought 3 years ago. It just isn't getting used and the up keep on two places takes to much time with the kids busy schedules. I have a chance to go in on a property in the southern tier and the more snow we get the more appealing that looks. If you know anyone that is looking for land on the snowmobile trail let me know.
 
Thanks. Everything is closed up. I will be back up in March. I am thinking about selling the 70 acres I bought 3 years ago. It just isn't getting used and the up keep on two places takes to much time with the kids busy schedules. I have a chance to go in on a property in the southern tier and the more snow we get the more appealing that looks. If you know anyone that is looking for land on the snowmobile trail let me know.

Your property is a snowmobilers dream Jeremy with car road access overlapping the snowmobile trail. My circle of snowmobilers is small but of course I'll get the word out. It should be a great snowmobile year with a lot of snowmobilers in the area this year. A slot in a southern tier zone club might be a good idea for you and may give you the best of both worlds; You would still have your northern zone camp with the areas miles and miles of forest but would also get to hunt from an active southern tier deer camp where the deer populations presumably are more stable. If you get real serious on the sale let me know and I'll post an ad on the bulletins boards of the local establishments I frequent.
 
The two day event now in progress is forcast to drop three feet to five feet in some areas of the snow plume. Lucky for us so far we are sitting this one out; we are at the red dot in the current no snow area just east of the lake. Yahooooooo!
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Now that is a Merry Christmas picture for us and the deer here! Snow areas change though as the wind directions off the lake change so we will likely get to "enjoy" some plume time before it is over.
 
Looks like like you are getting it today Dave. Camp picked up about 2' overnight. High of 10 for the next 7-10 days. Going to be a long winter.
 
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